Fri Feb 16 12:14:49 UTC 2018

The accuracy is listed for each league or region. The average goal error is a measure in goals how close the power ratings predicted the actual goal margin. 3.01 goals means that for all games played in a region, the power ratings predicted on average within 3.01 goals. The number of times the power ratings predicted within one, two, three, etc. goals is shown under the columns [0,1] [1,2]. etc. The bracket [0,1], means the error was greater than or equal to 0.0 goals and less than or equal to 1.0 goals. The average goal error is equal to the sum of the error for all games divided by the total number of games. Note that an upset here is defined as a team with a lower PR defeating a team with a higher PR. This does not conform to the definition of an upset on the UPSET page where the power ratings must differ by a minimum of 2 goals. Region Average No Measuring (goals) how close the PR Goal error Games predicted actual goal difference [0,1] [1,2] [2,3] [3,4] [4,5] >5 NCAA Division I 3.25 537 102 90 93 74 63 115 NCAA Division II / 4.13 701 135 133 107 87 78 161 NCAA Division III 3.38 1892 348 363 304 267 166 444 National Junior C 5.79 180 19 25 23 31 18 64 MCLA Division 1 3.86 647 124 117 83 81 64 178 MCLA Division 2 4.38 616 103 95 81 70 50 217 National College 5.18 508 137 117 81 51 48 74 Great Lakes Lacro 2.40 190 57 46 29 24 13 21 Teams of Interes 26.23 138 15 11 12 9 11 80 Post-Collegiate Le 20.21 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 8.00 96 7 9 11 11 9 49 6.03 35 2 6 7 3 0 17 TOTAL 3.40 5021 1000 958 786 665 478 1136 total games............... = 5021 ave error (goals)......... = 3.40 total upsets.............. = 740 % of games within 1 goal.. = 19.92 % of games within 2 goals. = 39.00 % of games within 3 goals. = 54.65 % of games within 4 goals. = 67.89 % of games within 5 goals. = 77.41 % of games > 5 goals. = 22.62
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